As of today’s Intrade close, Barack Obama currently holds a 55.7% chance to win the 2012 U.S. presidential election, while Mitt Romney holds a 44.1% chance. Romney is still significantly far behind, but has been making up some serious ground over the last few weeks. Romney’s 44.1% is 2.7% better than he fared last week, and Obama’s 55.7% is 1.7% worse than a week ago.
This marks three consecutive weeks in which Romney has pulled closer, and five straight weeks in which the momentum has been with him for the most part following a plunge in late July.
The jump in recent weeks may have more to do with the much anticipated and hurricane-displaced Republican National Convention than any longer term trends.