As of today’s Intrade close, the odds of any country currently using the euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET December 31 of the next several years is:
- 2012: 25%
- 2013: 53.5%
- 2014: 62.5%
These figures are considerably lower than the odds a week ago, with odds decreasing by 3.7%, 0.5%, and 1.5%, respectively.
This marks the third week in a row that we have witnessed not significant declines in Eurozone breakup odds.
At only a 25% chance of breakup by the end of the year, Intraders appear confident that the politicians will be able to hold the Eurozone together for a little bit longer.