The odds of a Eurozone breakup on Intrade fell off a cliff this week , with Intraders feeling much more confident this mess will be held together at least through the end of the year.
Two weeks ago ECB President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, and showed up with bazooka in hand. This alone would be enough of a statement to keep everything together for a bit longer, but just this Friday, Spain agreed to do a bit of restructuring of its own. So the chaos is still there, but it is tranquil at the moment.
The odds of any country currently using the euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET December 31 were as follows:
- By the end of 2012 – 15.0%. This is 10.6% below last week’s reading of 25.6%.
- By the end of 2013 – 50.0%. This is 5.0% below last week’s reading of 55.5%.
- By the end of 2014 – 56.0%. This is 4.4% below last week’s reading of 60.4%.