Bettors on the Intrade platform continued to believe Obama is closing in on victory this week, with the incumbent’s odds of getting reelected rising considerably for the third week in a row.

  • Barack Obama now holds a 76.3% chance to win reelection and keep the Democrats in The White House, 5.2% above last week’s odds of 71.1%.
  • Mitt Romney now holds a 23.0% chance to win, 6.0% lower than his odds last week of 29.0% and surely very disappointing news for the Republican party.

We can see that Romney has lost ground very quickly since the beginning of September, and will need an exceptionally strong showing in the debates, along with some Obama slip ups, to get back into this race.

 

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