As of today’s Intrade close, the odds of any country currently using the euro to announce intention to drop it before midnight ET December 31 were as follows:
- By the end of 2012 – 18.0%. This is 5.3% above last week’s reading of 12.7%.
- By the end of 2013 – 49.4%. This is 2.9% above last week’s reading of 46.5%.
- By the end of 2014 – 57.0%. This is 1.0% below last week’s reading of 58.0%.
Note that at one point this week (October 1st) the 2012 odds had dropped to 7.0%, so some people must have thought good news was coming, and then swiftly changed their minds.