U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Revised To -0.7%

Real gross domestic product decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. BEA published this morning. This was the second estimate for Q1, and was a downgrade from the advance estimate of 0.2% growth. The GDP growth rate in Q4 was 2.2% annualized.

Components of GDP by their contributions to GDP growth in Q1:

  • Personal consumption expenditures: +1.23%
  • Private investment: +0.12%
  • Net Exports: -1.90%
  • Government Consumption: -0.20%

GDP Components

Nominal GDP was at an annualized $17.6650 trillion in Q1, while real (inflation adjusted, 2009 chained) GDP was $16.2641 trillion.

Nominal GDP

Real GDP was up 2.7% from Q1 2014.

Annual GDP

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 282k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23 were a seasonally adjusted 282k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 275k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 251k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 272k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.222 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.211 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.66%, up from 1.65 the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.27% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.549 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.99% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing Starts

JC vs Total Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. State Unemployment Rates In April 2015

In April, the unemployment rate decreased in 23 U.S. states, increased in 11 states, and was unchanged in 16 states.

The unemployment rate is higher than a year ago in 5 states: West Virginia (7.0% vs 6.8%), South Carolina (6.7% vs 6.1%), Louisiana (6.6% vs 5.7%), South Dakota (3.6% vs 3.4%), and North Dakota (3.1% vs 2.7%).

Recall that the national jobless rate in April was 5.4%.

State Unemployment

U.S. House Prices In March 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in March, with the 20-city composite index rising 0.9% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 5.0%.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in December 2004.

Case-Shiller Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in San Francisco, where they rose 10.3%. Washington D.C. and Cleveland have had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.0%.

Case-Shiller Cities Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.3% in March (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.2% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Prices Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its January 2006 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Mountain region and increased the least in the New England region.

FHFA Regions

U.S. New Home Sales At Annual Rate Of 517k In April

U.S. new home sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 517k. That is up 6.8% from March’s revised rate of 484k. The national rate of new home sales in April was up 26.1% from a year ago.

New Home Sales Change

New Home Sales

New home sales by region, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in April:

  • Northeast: 17k from 18k last month.
  • Midwest: 78k from 57k last month.
  • South: 292k from 276k last month.
  • West: 130k from 133k last month.

New Home Sales Regions

The median sales price of new houses sold in April was $297.3k, up from $285.5k in March.

New Home Sales Price Change

New Home Sales Price

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 205k. This represents a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate.

New Home Sales Months Supply

New and existing home sales:

New and Existing Home Sales

U.S. Consumer Price Index Increases 0.1% In April

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index has decreased by 0.1%.

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% in April and is up 1.8% year over year.

Monthly CPI

Annual CPI

The All Food index was unchanged in April and is up 2.0% from a year ago. The All Energy index decreased 1.3% and is down 18.9% from a year ago.

CPI Table

CPI Components

The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.4% in April, seasonally adjusted. The index for final demand decreased 1.3% for the 12 months ended in March.

The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, decreased 0.2% and is up 0.7% from a year ago.

Monthly PPI

PPI Annual

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 274k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16 were a seasonally adjusted 274k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 264k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 243k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 266k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.211 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.223 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.65%, down from 1.66 the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.27% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.549 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.86% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC in Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP JC vs Housing Starts JC vs Total Employment JC vs U-3