U.S. Factory Orders Drop Another 1.0% In May

U.S. new orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.0% in May to $470.5 billion. This followed a 0.7% decrease in April. Excluding transportation, new orders in May increased 0.1%. Total new orders are down 6.3% from a year ago.

New Orders

Shipments decreased by 0.1% to $482.1 billion and are down 3.7% from a year ago.

Shipments

Unfilled orders decreased 0.5% to $1,194.6 billion and are up 5.7% from a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Inventories were unchanged at $649.7 billion and are down 0.6% from a year ago.

Inventories

The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.348, up from 1.347 in April.

Ratio

Shipments Inventories and Orders

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 281k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 were a seasonally adjusted 281k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 271k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 273k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 275k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.264 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.249 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.69%, up from 1.68 the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.14% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.298 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.28% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing

JC vs Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. Economy Adds 223k New Jobs In June

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 223k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of June. This follows revised payrolls gains of 254k in May and 187k in April.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in June.

Industry this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry since 2007

The household survey shows that 349k full-time jobs were lost in June, while part-time employment increased by 161k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 822k and part-time jobs have increased by 2,909k.

FTPT Since 2007

PTFT Annual

Part-time employees made up 18.60% of the workforce in June, up from 18.47% in May.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 31.9%, down from 33.4%.

PT Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.3% in June, a decrease from 5.5% in May. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.5% from 10.8%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.2%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.2%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.5%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.6% from 62.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio fell to 59.3% from 59.4%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.4% and participation among women decreased to 56.7% from 56.8%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.8% from 81.0%.

LFP Age

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.6, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.99 from $20.97. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.94% from a year ago.

Hours

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in June was 28.1 weeks, down from 30.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 42.7% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment vs GDP

U.S. Construction Spending Rises 0.8% In May

Total U.S. construction spending during May was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,035.8 billion. That is 0.8% above the revised April estimate, and 8.2% above the May 2014 estimate.

Annual Rate

Annual Change

Private residential construction spending was at an annual rate of $359.5 billion, which is 0.3% above the prior month and 7.8% below the same month a year ago.

Private nonresidential construction was at an annual rate of $392.8 billion, which is 1.5% above the prior month and 12.7% above the same month a year ago.

Public construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $283.4 billion, which is 0.7% above the prior month and 2.8% above the same month a year ago.

Components Rate

Components Change

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Decline To Annual Rate Of 17.16 Million In June

Autodata reports in its preliminary reading for the month of June that U.S. light weight motor vehicle sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.16 million. This is a decrease from the final May reading of a SAAR of 17.72 million as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Annual Rate

The June sales rate is up 1.8% from the same period last year. The 3-month moving average of year over year growth is 3.7%.

Annual Change

U.S. House Prices In April 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in April, with the 20-city composite index rising 1.1% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 4.9%.

CS Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in January 2005.

CS Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined.

CS Cities Index

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in Denver, where they rose 10.3%. Washington D.C. has had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.1%.

CS Cities Annual Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

CS Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.3% in April (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.3% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its February 2006 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Pacific region and increased the least in the Middle Atlantic region.

FHFA Regions

U.S. Disposable Personal Income And Outlays In May 2015

U.S. disposable personal income increased 0.5% in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $13.43 trillion. This increase follows a 0.4% gain in April, and leaves disposable personal income up 3.8% from a year ago.

DPI Change

Personal outlays for the month totaled an annualized $12.74 trillion, up 0.8% from the month prior, leaving personal outlays up 3.7% from the year prior.

Outlays Change

Historically, the change in outlays is far less volatile than the change in disposable income.

DPI and Outlays Annual

Personal savings, which is disposable personal income less personal outlays, decreased to $685.5 billion from $726.9 billion.

Income Outlays and Savings

The personal savings rate decreased to 5.10% from 5.44%.

Savings Rate