CFNAI Decreases To +0.14 In October

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.14 in October, down from September’s revised reading of +0.29. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.01.

49 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 36 made negative contributions. 36 indicators improved from September to October, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 7 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.01 from +0.18 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.22, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.17, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.11 from +0.06.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Rises To +0.47 In September

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.47 in September, up from August’s revised reading of -0.25. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.25.

58 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 27 made negative contributions. 56 indicators improved from August to September, while 29 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.30 from -0.20 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.22 from +0.04, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.08 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Orders

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Falls To -0.21 In August

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.21 in August, down from July’s revised reading of +0.26. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.07.

45 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 40 made negative contributions. 42 indicators improved from July to August, while 43 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The total index was dragged down by the Production and Income component which registered -0.17 from +0.24 in July. Employment and Hours was an even 0.00 from +0.10, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.13, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.08 from +0.04.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

CFNAI Production

CFNAI Employment

CFNAI Consumption

CFNAI Sales

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Moves Further Above Historical Trend In July

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.39 in July, up from June’s revised reading of +0.21. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.25.

53 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 32 made negative contributions.

48 indicators improved from June to July, while 36 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 9 made negative contributions.

CFNAI

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.