CFNAI Contracts To -0.11 In February

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.11 in February, down from January’s revised reading of -0.10. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.08.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 37 made negative contributions. 46 indicators improved from January to February, while 39 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 10 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.07 from -0.20 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.11 from +0.16, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.17 from -0.07, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.02 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Orders

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Rises To +0.13 In January

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.13 in January, up from December’s revised reading of -0.07. The positive figure indicates that the index is above  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.33.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 37 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from December to January, while 42 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.02 from -0.22 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.18 from +0.28, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.10 from -0.13, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.00.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Drops To -0.05 In December

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.05 in December, down from November’s revised reading of +0.92. The negative figure indicates that the index is below  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.39.

40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 45 made negative contributions. 33 indicators improved from November to December, while 52 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.12 from +0.71 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.21, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.03, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.03.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales Orders and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Rises To +0.73 In November

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.73 in November, up from October’s revised reading of +0.31. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.48.

54 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 36 made negative contributions. 36 indicators improved from September to October, while 31 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 6 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.64 from +0.09 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.17 from +0.22, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.10 from -0.11, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.02 from +0.11.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Ordes

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Decreases To +0.14 In October

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.14 in October, down from September’s revised reading of +0.29. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.01.

49 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 36 made negative contributions. 36 indicators improved from September to October, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 7 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.01 from +0.18 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.22, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.17, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.11 from +0.06.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Rises To +0.47 In September

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.47 in September, up from August’s revised reading of -0.25. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.25.

58 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 27 made negative contributions. 56 indicators improved from August to September, while 29 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.30 from -0.20 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.22 from +0.04, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.08 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Orders

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Falls To -0.21 In August

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.21 in August, down from July’s revised reading of +0.26. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.07.

45 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 40 made negative contributions. 42 indicators improved from July to August, while 43 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The total index was dragged down by the Production and Income component which registered -0.17 from +0.24 in July. Employment and Hours was an even 0.00 from +0.10, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.13, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.08 from +0.04.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

CFNAI Production

CFNAI Employment

CFNAI Consumption

CFNAI Sales

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.