CFNAI Increases In July To +0.34

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.34 in July, up from June’s revised reading of -0.07. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at 0.00.

50 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 35 made negative contributions. 44 indicators improved from June to July, while 40 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.28 from -0.14 last month. Employment and Hours was at +0.11 from +0.11, Personal Consumption and Housing was at -0.06 from -0.10, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.01 from +0.06.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

P&I

E&H

C&H

SO&I

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Moves Back Above Trend At +0.08 In June

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.08 in June, up from May’s revised reading of -0.08. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.09.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 37 made negative contributions. 44 indicators improved from May to June, while 40 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.01 from -0.08 last month. Employment and Hours was at +0.12 from +0.06, Personal Consumption and Housing was at -0.07 from -0.05, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from -0.01.

CFNAI Recent

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Ticks Up To -0.17 In May

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.17 in May, up from April’s revised reading of -0.19. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.16.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 50 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from April to May, while 41 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.17 from -0.19 last month. Employment and Hours was unchanged at +0.10, Personal Consumption and Housing was also unchanged at -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Improves To -0.15 In April

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.15 in April, up from Marchy’s revised reading of -0.36. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.23.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. 46 indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.16 from -0.16 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.08 from -0.08, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.06 from -0.12, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Contracts To -0.42 In March

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.42 in March, down from February’s revised reading of -0.18. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.27.

38 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. 37 indicators improved from February to March, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.27 from -0.08 last month. Employment and Hours was -0.03 from +0.11, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.22, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.01 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

P&I

E&H

C&H

SO&I

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Contracts To -0.11 In February

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.11 in February, down from January’s revised reading of -0.10. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.08.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 37 made negative contributions. 46 indicators improved from January to February, while 39 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 10 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.07 from -0.20 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.11 from +0.16, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.17 from -0.07, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.02 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Orders

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

CFNAI Rises To +0.13 In January

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.13 in January, up from December’s revised reading of -0.07. The positive figure indicates that the index is above  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.33.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 37 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from December to January, while 42 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.02 from -0.22 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.18 from +0.28, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.10 from -0.13, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.00.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.