U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 281k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 were a seasonally adjusted 281k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 296k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 344k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 283k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.215 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.327 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.64%, down from 1.74% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.63% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.298 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.69% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC in context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing Starts

JC vs Total Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 297k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 were a seasonally adjusted 297k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 282k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 304k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 280k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.334 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.265 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.74%, up from 1.69% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.14% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.298 million Americans currently unemployed, 28.13% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC in Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing Starts

JC vs Totle Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. Job Openings Rise Slightly In May

U.S. job openings increased in May to 5.363 million from 5.334 million in April. Hires decreased to 5.000 million from 5.034 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening increased to 1.62 from 1.60.

Unemployed Worked per Opening

There were 4.743 million separations in May. Quits decreased to 2.699 million from 2.709 million, layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.653 million from 1.784 million, and other separations decreased to 0.391 million from 0.402 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) increased to 1.63 from 1.52.

Quits Ratio

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 257k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 257k is approximately the same as the 254k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS vs NFP

Over the past 12 months, the JOLTS report has shown employment growth of 221k less jobs than suggested in the employment situation release.

BLS STats Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 281k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 were a seasonally adjusted 281k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 271k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 273k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 275k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.264 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.249 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.69%, up from 1.68 the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.14% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.298 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.28% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing

JC vs Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. Economy Adds 223k New Jobs In June

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 223k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of June. This follows revised payrolls gains of 254k in May and 187k in April.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in June.

Industry this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry since 2007

The household survey shows that 349k full-time jobs were lost in June, while part-time employment increased by 161k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 822k and part-time jobs have increased by 2,909k.

FTPT Since 2007

PTFT Annual

Part-time employees made up 18.60% of the workforce in June, up from 18.47% in May.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 31.9%, down from 33.4%.

PT Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.3% in June, a decrease from 5.5% in May. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.5% from 10.8%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.2%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.2%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.5%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.6% from 62.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio fell to 59.3% from 59.4%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.4% and participation among women decreased to 56.7% from 56.8%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.8% from 81.0%.

LFP Age

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.6, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.99 from $20.97. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.94% from a year ago.

Hours

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in June was 28.1 weeks, down from 30.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 42.7% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment vs GDP

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 271k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 were a seasonally adjusted 271k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 268k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 263k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 274k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.247 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.225 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.68%, up from 1.66 the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.11% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.674 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.91% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC in Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing

JC vs Employment

JC vs U-3

CFNAI Ticks Up To -0.17 In May

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.17 in May, up from April’s revised reading of -0.19. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.16.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 50 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from April to May, while 41 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.17 from -0.19 last month. Employment and Hours was unchanged at +0.10, Personal Consumption and Housing was also unchanged at -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.