U.S. Employment Costs Rise 2.3% Y/Y

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the employment cost index for total compensation of all civilian workers in the fourth quarter of 2014 was up 2.33% from the same period the year prior. This growth rate is slightly higher than the 2.26% annual growth rate in the third quarter.

Compensation for private industry workers was up 2.34% annually in Q4, while state and local government worker compensation rose 2.13%.

Employment Costs

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 265k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 were a seasonally adjusted 265k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 308k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 280k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 297k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.385 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.456 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.79%, down from 1.84% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.47% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.687 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.45% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

CFNAI Drops To -0.05 In December

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.05 in December, down from November’s revised reading of +0.92. The negative figure indicates that the index is below  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.39.

40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 45 made negative contributions. 33 indicators improved from November to December, while 52 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.12 from +0.71 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.21, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.03, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.03.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales Orders and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 307k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 were a seasonally adjusted 307k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 317k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 381k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 305k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.443 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.428 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.83%, upn from 1.82% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.47% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.687 million Americans currently unemployed, 28.12% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 316k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 were a seasonally adjusted 316k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 297k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 529k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 298k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.424 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.475 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.82%, down from 1.86% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment

90.47% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.687 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.90% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

Job Openings Rise To Highest Since 2001

U.S. job openings increased in November to 4.972 million from 4.830 million in October. Hires decreased to 4.990 million from 5.101 million.

Openings and Hires

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.83 from 1.96.

Unemployed per Job Opening

There were 4.623 million separations in November. Quits decreased to 2.618 million from 2.712 million, layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.612 million from 1.757 million, and other separations decreased to 0.393 million from 0.394 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) increased to 1.62 from 1.54.

Ratio of Quits to Layoffs

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 367k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 367k is slightly higher than the 353k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS Net Turnover

BLS Stats Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve