Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 291k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were a seasonally adjusted 291k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 293k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 285k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

STates

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 288k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.330 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.403 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.76%, down from 1.81% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.995 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.90% receive unemployment insurance.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

People Are Quitting Their Jobs Again

U.S. job openings decreased in September to 4.735 million from 4.853 million in August. Hires increased to 5.026 million from 4.742 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.96 from 1.98.

Unemployed per Job Opening

There were 4.788 million separations in September. Quits increased to 2.753 million from 2.510 million, layoffs and discharges increased to 1.647 million from 1.619 million, and other separations decreased to 0.388 million from 0.402 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges increased to 1.67 from 1.55, which is a positive sign and indicates people are more comfortable leaving their jobs.

Ratio of Quits

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 238k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 238k is slightly lowers than the 256k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS and NFP

BLS Variance

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 290k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 were a seasonally adjusted 290k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 278k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 307k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 285k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.392 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.356 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, up from 1.78% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.995 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.59% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share of Unemployed

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Economy Adds 214k Jobs In October

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 214k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of October. This follows revised payrolls gains of 256k in September and 203k in August.

NFP

The Leisure and Hospitality industry added the most jobs in October.

Industry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, along with the Leisure and Hospitality and Professional Services industries, have contributed the most to the job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in October, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 345k full-time jobs were added in October, while part-time employment increased by 334k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.2 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.9 million.

FTPT Cumulative

Part-time employees made up 18.80% of the workforce in October, up from 18.66% in September.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 35.5% from 36.3%.

PT Economic

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in October, down from 5.9% in September. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.5% from 11.8%.

U-3

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 7.9%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.9%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, up from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio increase to 59.2% from 59.0%.

LFP

Participation among men was unchanged at 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.0% from 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) increased to 80.8% from 80.7%.

LFP by Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Age Change

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees increased to 33.8 from 33.7, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.70 from $20.66. This increased average weekly earnings to $699.66, up 2.7% from a year ago.

Earnings

Hours

Average duration of unemployment in October was 32.7 weeks, up from 31.5 in September.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

DUration Distribution

Increasing labor market participation and a slight tick up in wage growth were about the only positives in this month’s report. Much of the job gains were in low-paying industries, and a disproportionately greater share of jobs added were only part-time.

Worse yet, the already abysmally high average duration of unemployment rose once again, and the share of the unemployed who have been so for more than 15 weeks increased as well. This further suggests that the problem is secular as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 278k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 1 were a seasonally adjusted 278k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 288k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 266k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

STates

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 279k. That’s the lowest since April 2000.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.348 million, downfrom the previous week’s revised reading of 2.387 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.77%, down from 1.80% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment

90.54% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.262 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.35% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients as Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Small Business Employment In October

The Intuit Small Business Employment Index is a measure of employment for firms with fewer than 20 employees. It is derived using aggregate and anonymous online employment data for approximately 170,000 small business employers using Intuit Payroll.

U.S. small business employment improved in October, with Intuit’s index showing a 96.63 reading. This means that U.S. small business employment is at 96.63% of the level it was in January 2007.

Employment Change

Employment

The average number of hours worked by U.S. small business employees during the month was 109.12, a decrease from September.

Hours Change

Hours

Compensation (average pay during the month) to U.S. small business employees (owners included) was at $2,775.92, an increase from September

Compensation Change

Compensation

Intuit provides an employment index for 39 states, those which it has more than a thousand customers. Each state is individually indexed to 100 in January of 2007.

Texas, New York, Oklahoma, Washington, and Oregon are the only U.S. states whose small business employment level is higher than it was in January 2007. Idaho’s employment level is the worst at only 81.99% of its January 2007 level.

Notice that several states are currently at their recession low.

State Employment

ADP Sees 230k Jobs Added In October

ADP reports that U.S. nonfarm private sector employment increased by 230k in the month of October. This follows revised increases of 225k in September and 162k in August.

“Employment continues to trend upward as we begin the last quarter of 2014, driven mostly by small to mid-sized companies,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “October’s job growth is the highest since June and the second highest gain of 2014.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is steadily picking up pace. Job growth is strong and broad-based across industries and company sizes. At this pace of job growth unemployment and underemployment is quickly declining. The job market will soon be tight enough to support a meaningful acceleration in wage growth.”

ADP

Total nonfarm private employment by company size:

Company Size

Company Size Long

Change in total nonfarm private employment by industry:

Industry

Industry Long

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment situation report on Friday with much more detail about the labor market.