Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 287k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 25 were a seasonally adjusted 287k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 284k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 270k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 281k. That’s the lowest since May 2000.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.384 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.355 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, up from 1.77% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment

90.54% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.262 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.74% receive unemployment insurance.

Recipients as Share of Unemployed

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

CFNAI Rises To +0.47 In September

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.47 in September, up from August’s revised reading of -0.25. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.25.

58 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 27 made negative contributions. 56 indicators improved from August to September, while 29 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.30 from -0.20 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.22 from +0.04, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.08 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Orders

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Increase To 283k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were a seasonally adjusted 283k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 266k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 255k.

Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 281k. That’s the lowest since May 2000.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.351 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.389 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.77%, down from 1.80% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment

90.54% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.262 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.38% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients as Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. State Unemployment Rates In September 2014

In September, the unemployment rate decreased in 31 U.S. states, increased in 8 states, and was unchanged in 11 states and the District of Columbia.

The unemployment rate is higher than a year ago in 5 states: Iowa (4.6% vs 4.5%), Wyoming (4.7% vs 4.6%), Alabama (6.6% vs 6.4%), West Virginia (6.6% vs 6.4%), and Alaska (6.8% vs 6.6%).

Recall that the national jobless rate in September was 5.9%.

State Unemployment Rates

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Drop To 264k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 11 were a seasonally adjusted 264k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 287k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 272k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 284k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.389 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.382 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, unchanged from the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.54% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.262 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.79% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 287k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 4 were a seasonally adjusted 287k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 288k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 258k.

Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 288k.

Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.381 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.402 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, lower than the 1.82% the week prior.

IU Rate

90.14% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered

Of the 9.262 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.71% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Hiring Dips, Job Openings Soar

U.S. job openings increased in August to 4.835 million from 4.605 million in July. Hires decreased to 4.640 million from 4.934 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening increased to 1.98 from 2.10.

Workers per opening

There were 4.440 million separations in August. Quits decreased to 2.473 million from 2.547 million, layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.580 million from 1.726 million, and other separations increased to 0.387 million from 0.356 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges increased to 1.57 from 1.48, which is a positive sign and indicates people are more comfortable leaving their jobs.

Ratio of Quits

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 200k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 200k is slightly higher than the 180k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

Net Turnover

Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve