Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 289k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were a seasonally adjusted 289k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 295k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 327k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 299k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.373 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.520 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.79%,down from 1.90% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.110 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.05% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Share of Unemployed

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 294k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 were a seasonally adjusted 294k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 297k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 388k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 299k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.514 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.372 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.89%, up from 1.79% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.110 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.60% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Job Openings Tick Up In October

U.S. job openings increased in October to 4.834 million from 4.685 million in September. Hires decreased to 5.055 million from 5.075 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.86 from 1.98.

Unemployed Workers per Opening

There were 4.824 million separations in October. Quits decreased to 2.720 million from 2.735 million, layoffs and discharges increased to 1.700 million from 1.653 million, and other separations decreased to 0.404 million from 0.421 million.

Separation

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) decreased to 1.60 from 1.65.

Ratio of Quits

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 231k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 231k is slightly lower than the 243k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

Net Turnover

BLS Stats Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

SNAP Participation Little Changed In September

The number of Americans receiving assistance from the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), previously known as food stamps, was little changed in September, decreasing by 16k.

Participation Change

A total of 46.460 million people participated in the program.

Participation

The number of SNAP participants as a ratio of the total employed persons was 31.68%, down from 31.76% in August.

SNAP-to-Employed

The percentage of the population participating in SNAP has increased as the average duration of unemployment has grown.

SNAP-to-Population and Unemployment Duration

The average monthly benefit received per person in September was $123.74, down from $124.07.

Cost Change

Cost

The total cost of the SNAP program in September was $5.749 billion, down from $5.766 billion in August. The annual cost of the SNAP program (rolling 12 months) was $70.008 billion, down from $70.560 billion.

Annual Cost

U.S. Economy Adds 321k Jobs In November

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 321k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of November. This follows revised payrolls gains of 243k in October and 271k in September.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in November.

Payrolls by INdustry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in November, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 150k full-time jobs were lost in November, while part-time employment increased by 77k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.4 million and part-time jobs have increased by 3.0 million.

FTPT Since November 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.86% of the workforce in November, up from 18.80% in October.

Part-time Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 34.2% from 35.5%.

Part-time Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in November, unchanged from October. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.4% from 11.5%.

U-3 and U-6

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 by Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.5%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 11.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, unchanged from last month, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.2%.

Participation and EP Ratio

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.1% from 57.0%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) was unchanged at 80.8%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Since August 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.74 from $20.70. Average hourly earnings have increased 2.17% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Hourly Earnings Growth

Average duration of unemployment in November was 33.0 weeks, up from 32.7 in October.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 46.3% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duration Distribution

Strong growth in payrolls this month, along with a solid industry mix, make this an unusually positive employment report. The household survey suggests maybe the full-time/part-time job split was weak, but the sheer number of jobs added should compensate for that.

Labor force participation was unchanged, which isn’t great, but is an improvement from the declining trend. Average unemployment duration, I believe still a highly undervalued measure of labor market health, remains stubbornly high and indicates a secular problem, as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.

U.S. Small Business Employment In November

The Intuit Small Business Employment Index is a measure of employment for firms with fewer than 20 employees. It is derived using aggregate and anonymous online employment data for approximately 170,000 small business employers using Intuit Payroll.

U.S. small business employment improved in November, with Intuit’s index showing a 97.08 reading. This means that U.S. small business employment is at 97.08% of the level it was in January 2007.

Employment Change

Employment

The average number of hours worked by U.S. small business employees during the month was 109.12, a decrease from 109.16 in October.

Hours Change

Hours

Compensation (average pay during the month) to U.S. small business employees (owners included) was at $2,775.92, an increase from $2,773.71 in October.

Compensation Change

Compensation

Intuit provides an employment index for 39 states, those which it has more than a thousand customers. Each state is individually indexed to 100 in January of 2007.

Texas, New York, Washington, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Nevada are the only U.S. states whose small business employment level is higher than it was in January 2007. Idaho’s employment level is the worst at only 81.03% of its January 2007 level.

Notice that several states are currently at their recession low.

Intuit States