Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 313k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were a seasonally adjusted 313k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 292k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 356k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 294k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.316 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.333 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.74%, down from 1.76% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.995 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.75% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

CFNAI Decreases To +0.14 In October

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.14 in October, down from September’s revised reading of +0.29. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.01.

49 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 36 made negative contributions. 36 indicators improved from September to October, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 7 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.01 from +0.18 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.22, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.17, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.11 from +0.06.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 291k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15 were a seasonally adjusted 291k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 293k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 285k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

STates

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 288k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.330 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.403 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.76%, down from 1.81% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.995 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.90% receive unemployment insurance.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

People Are Quitting Their Jobs Again

U.S. job openings decreased in September to 4.735 million from 4.853 million in August. Hires increased to 5.026 million from 4.742 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.96 from 1.98.

Unemployed per Job Opening

There were 4.788 million separations in September. Quits increased to 2.753 million from 2.510 million, layoffs and discharges increased to 1.647 million from 1.619 million, and other separations decreased to 0.388 million from 0.402 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges increased to 1.67 from 1.55, which is a positive sign and indicates people are more comfortable leaving their jobs.

Ratio of Quits

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 238k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 238k is slightly lowers than the 256k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS and NFP

BLS Variance

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 290k

Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 8 were a seasonally adjusted 290k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 278k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 307k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 285k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.392 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.356 million.

Unemployment Insurance Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, up from 1.78% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.12% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.995 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.59% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share of Unemployed

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Economy Adds 214k Jobs In October

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 214k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of October. This follows revised payrolls gains of 256k in September and 203k in August.

NFP

The Leisure and Hospitality industry added the most jobs in October.

Industry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, along with the Leisure and Hospitality and Professional Services industries, have contributed the most to the job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in October, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 345k full-time jobs were added in October, while part-time employment increased by 334k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.2 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.9 million.

FTPT Cumulative

Part-time employees made up 18.80% of the workforce in October, up from 18.66% in September.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 35.5% from 36.3%.

PT Economic

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in October, down from 5.9% in September. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.5% from 11.8%.

U-3

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 7.9%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.9%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, up from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio increase to 59.2% from 59.0%.

LFP

Participation among men was unchanged at 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.0% from 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) increased to 80.8% from 80.7%.

LFP by Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Age Change

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees increased to 33.8 from 33.7, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.70 from $20.66. This increased average weekly earnings to $699.66, up 2.7% from a year ago.

Earnings

Hours

Average duration of unemployment in October was 32.7 weeks, up from 31.5 in September.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

DUration Distribution

Increasing labor market participation and a slight tick up in wage growth were about the only positives in this month’s report. Much of the job gains were in low-paying industries, and a disproportionately greater share of jobs added were only part-time.

Worse yet, the already abysmally high average duration of unemployment rose once again, and the share of the unemployed who have been so for more than 15 weeks increased as well. This further suggests that the problem is secular as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.