U.S. State Unemployment Rates In July 2015

In July, the unemployment rate decreased in 24 U.S. states, increased in 14 states, and was unchanged in 12 states.

The unemployment rate is higher than a year ago in 6 states: West Virginia (7.5% vs 6.5%), Kansas (4.6% vs 4.4%), Oklahoma (4.5% vs 4.4%), Minnesota (4.0% vs 3.8%), South Dakota (3.8% vs 3.3%), and North Dakota (3.0% vs 2.7%).

Recall that the national jobless rate in July was 5.3%.

STate Unemployment

CFNAI Increases In July To +0.34

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.34 in July, up from June’s revised reading of -0.07. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at 0.00.

50 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 35 made negative contributions. 44 indicators improved from June to July, while 40 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.28 from -0.14 last month. Employment and Hours was at +0.11 from +0.11, Personal Consumption and Housing was at -0.06 from -0.10, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.01 from +0.06.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

P&I

E&H

C&H

SO&I

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 277k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 were a seasonally adjusted 277k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 273k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 230k.

JC

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 270k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.254 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.278 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.67%, down from 1.69% the week prior.

IU Rate

90.57% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.266 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.27% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

Context

U.S. Industrial Production Increases 0.6% In July

U.S. industrial production increased 0.6% in July after having increased 0.1% in June.

At 107.5% of its 2007 average, total industrial production in July was only 1.3% above its level of a year earlier.

IP Change

IP

The output of manufacturing was rose 0.8% in July, production at mines increased 0.2%, and output of utilities decreased 1.0%.

Capacity utilization for total industry increased in July to 78.0%, but remains down from the start of the year and is less than the long-run (1972–2014) average of 80.1%.

CapUt

Historically, industrial production and employment growth have moved together.

IP vs Employment

U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 274k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 were a seasonally adjusted 274k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 269k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 240k.

Jobless Claims

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 264k.

JC 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.273 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.258 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.69%, up from 1.68% the week prior.

IU Rate

90.57% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.266 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.50% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Here jobless claims are placed in the context of the U.S. civilian noninstitutional population.

JC in Context

These charts show how some important economic indicators have moved with jobless claims.

JC vs GDP

JC vs Housing Starts

JC vs Employment

JC vs U-3

U.S. Job Openings Dip In June

U.S. job openings decreased in June to 5.249 million from 5.357 million in May. Hires increased to 5.177 million from 5.060 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.58 from 1.62.

Unemployed per Opening

There were 4.931 million separations in June. Quits increased to 2.748 million from 2.730 million, layoffs and discharges increased to 1.791 million from 1.660 million, and other separations decreased to 0.392 million from 0.409 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) decreased to 1.53 from 1.64.

Quits Ratio

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 246k jobs.

Hires and Spearations Net

That 246k is slightly higher than the 231k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS vs NFP

Over the past 12 months, the JOLTS report has shown employment growth of 219k less jobs than suggested in the employment situation release.

BLS Stats Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings). As the unemployment rate has returned to pre-recession level, the job openings rate remains elevated, indicating skills mismatch in the labor market.

Beveridge Curve

U.S. Economy Adds 215k New Jobs In July

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 215k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of July. This follows revised payrolls gains of 231k in June and 260k in May.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in July.

Industry this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 536k full-time jobs were added in July, while part-time employment decreased by 402k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 286k and part-time jobs have increased by 2,507k.

FTPT Since 2007

Jobs Added Last 12M

Part-time employees made up 18.32% of the workforce in July, down from 18.60% in June.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was unchanged at 31.9%.

PT Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.3% in July, unchanged from June. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.4% from 10.5%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.1%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma was at 8.3%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.3%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men was unchanged at 69.0% and participation among women was unchanged at 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.7% from 80.8%.

LFP Age

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.7, while average hourly earnings increased to $21.01 from $20.98. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.84% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in July was 28.3 weeks, up from 28.1. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 41.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment vs GDP