Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 295k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 were a seasonally adjusted 295k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 294k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 279k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 285k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.325 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.275 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.73%, up from 1.70% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.39% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered

Of the 8.575 million Americans currently unemployed, 27.11% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

CFNAI Contracts To -0.42 In March

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.42 in March, down from February’s revised reading of -0.18. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.27.

38 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. 37 indicators improved from February to March, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.27 from -0.08 last month. Employment and Hours was -0.03 from +0.11, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.22, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.01 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

P&I

E&H

C&H

SO&I

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 294k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 were a seasonally adjusted 294k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 282k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 308k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 283k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.268 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.308 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.69%, down from 1.73% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.39% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.575 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.45% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 281k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 were a seasonally adjusted 281k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 267k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 253k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 282k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.304 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.327 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.73%, down from 1.74% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

89.93% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 8.575 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.87% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Job Openings Surge In February

U.S. job openings increased in February to 5.133 million from 4.965 million in January. Hires decreased to 4.916 million from 4.994 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.70 from 1.81.

Unemployed per Opening

There were 4.650 million separations in February. Quits decreased to 2.867 million from 2.779 million, layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.591 million from 1.722 million, and other separations increased to 0.372 million from 0.333 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) increased to 1.69 from 1.61.

Quits Ratio

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 266k jobs.

Hires and Separations

That 266k is slightly higher than the 264k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS and NFP

BLS Stats Variation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

U.S. Economy Adds 126k New Jobs In March

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 126k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of March. This follows revised payrolls gains of 264k in February and 201k in January.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in March.

Payrolls Change this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

NFP by Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 190k full-time jobs were added in March, while part-time employment decreased by 170k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 0.9 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.5 million.

PTFT Split Since 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.41% of the workforce in March, down from 18.52% in February.

PT Reasons

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 34.0%, up from 33.4%.

Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.5% in March, unchanged from February. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.9% from 11.0%.

Unemployment Rate

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.4% from 5.5%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.6%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.7% from 62.8%, while the employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men decreased to 69.3% from 69.4% and participation among women decreased to 56.6% from 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) fell to 80.9% from 81.0%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

CHange in LFP Since 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees decreased to 33.7 from 33.8, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.86 from $20.82. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.76% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Earnings Growth

Average duration of unemployment in March was 30.7 weeks, down from 31.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 44.3% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment and GDP