Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 313k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21 were a seasonally adjusted 313k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 282k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 280k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 295k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.401 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.422 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.80%, down from 1.82% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.01% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.111 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.35% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

CFNAI Rises To +0.13 In January

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.13 in January, up from December’s revised reading of -0.07. The positive figure indicates that the index is above  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.33.

48 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 37 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from December to January, while 42 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.02 from -0.22 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.18 from +0.28, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.10 from -0.13, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.00.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 283k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were a seasonally adjusted 283k, down from the prior week’s revised reading of 304k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 279k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 283k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.425 million, up from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.367 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.82%, up from 1.77% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.01% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.111 million Americans currently unemployed, 26.62% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipients Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor MArket

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims At 304k

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were a seasonally adjusted 304k, up from the prior week’s revised reading of 279k. Not seasonally adjusted, jobless claims for the week were 324k.

Jobless Claims

Individual states that had changes in claims of more than 1k (not seasonally adjusted):

States

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 290k.

Jobless Claims 4W

The number of unemployment insurance recipients, or continuing claims, for regular state programs was 2.354 million, down from the previous week’s revised reading of 2.405 million.

UI Recipients

The insured unemployment rate, which is the number of unemployment insurance recipients as a share of covered employment, was 1.76%, down from 1.80% the week prior.

Insured Unemployment Rate

90.01% of all U.S. jobs are covered by state unemployment insurance programs.

Covered Employment

Of the 9.111 million Americans currently unemployed, 25.84% receive unemployment insurance.

UI Recipient Share

Jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

Labor Market

U.S. Job Openings Increase Again In December

U.S. job openings increased in December to 5.028 million from 4.847 million in November. Hires increased to 5.148 million from 5.054 million.

Hires and Openings

The number of unemployed workers per job opening decreased to 1.73 from 1.88.

Workers per Opening

There were 4.886 million separations in December. Quits increased to 2.717 million from 2.661 million, layoffs and discharges increased to 1.726 million from 1.655 million, and other separations increased to 0.443 million from 0.384 million.

Separations

The ratio of quits to layoffs and discharges (higher is better) decreased to 1.57 from 1.61.

Quits Ratio

Subtracting total separations from hires, net labor turnover for the month is suggested to be an increase of 262k jobs.

Hirs and Separations

That 262k is lower than the 329k nonfarm payrolls added as reported in the employment situation release.

JOLTS vs NFP

BLS Stats VAriation

The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate (job openings as a percentage of the total employed plus job openings).

Beveridge Curve

Snap Participation Falls To 46.3 Million

The number of Americans receiving assistance from the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), previously known as food stamps, decreased by 206k persons in November.

Participants Change

A total of 46.272 million people participated in the program.

Participants

The number of SNAP participants as a ratio of the total employed persons was 31.42%, down from 31.54% in October.

SNAP to Employed

The percentage of the population participating in SNAP has increased as the average duration of unemployment has grown.

SNAP and Duration

The average monthly benefit received per person in November was $127.53, down from $128.44.

Costs Change

Cost per Participant

The total cost of the SNAP program in November was $5.901 billion, down from $5.969 billion in October. The annual cost of the SNAP program (rolling 12 months) was $69.589 billion, down from $69.614 billion.

Annual SNAP Cost

U.S. Economy Adds 257k New Jobs In January

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 257k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of January. This follows revised payrolls gains of 329k in December and 423k in November.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in January.

Industry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in January, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 777k full-time jobs were added in January, while part-time employment increased by 40k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 1.2 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.8 million.

PTFT Change

Part-time employees made up 18.58% of the workforce in January, down from 18.66% in December.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was unchanged at 34.4%.

Economic Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.7% in January, up from 5.6% in December. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) increased to 11.3% from 11.2%.

U-6

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.5%.

Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.3%.

Race

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.9% from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio increased to 59.3% from 59.2%.

LFP

Participation among men increased to 69.5% from 69.2% and participation among women increased to 56.8% from 56.6%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) rose to 81.8% from 80.8% in December.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

Participation Rate Since 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees decreased to 33.8 from 33.9, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.80 from $20.73. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.96% from a year ago.

Hours

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in January was 32.3 weeks, down from 32.8 in December. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.0% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Overall, this was a strong and generally positive employment report.