U.S. Treasury Runs Budget Surplus Of $156.7 Billion In April

The U.S. federal government ran a budget surplus of $156.7 billion during the month of April. This compares with a $106.9 billion surplus in April 2014. This budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 is so far at $282.8 billion.

Budget Balance Years

Receipts for the month totaled $471.8 billion, up from $414.2 billion a year earlier. Total outlays were $315.1 billion from $307.4 billion a year earlier.

The rolling 12-month U.S. government budget deficit through April was $559.7 billion from $509.6 billion in March. The rolling 12-month budget balance as a percentage of gross domestic product is -2.60%.

Budget Balance

U.S. Economy Adds 223k New Jobs In April

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 223k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of April. This follows revised payrolls gains of 85k in March and 266k in February.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in April.

NFP by Industry

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

NFP Industry Cumulative

The household survey shows that 252k full-time jobs were lost in April, while part-time employment increased by 437k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 1.1 million and part-time jobs have increased by 3.0 million.

FTPT Split

Part-time employees made up 18.68% of the workforce in April, up from 18.41% in March.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 32.8%, down from 34.0%.

Economic Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.4% in April, a decrease from 5.5% in March. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.8% from 10.9%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, was unchanged at 5.4%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma was unchanged at 8.6%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.6%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.8% from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men increased to 69.4% from 69.3% and participation among women was unchanged at 56.6%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) increased to 81.0% from 80.9%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Since Peak

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.7, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.90 from $20.88. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.85% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Hourly Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in April was 30.8 weeks, up from 30.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 42.1% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment and GDP

U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Increases To $51.4 Billion In March

The U.S. international trade deficit during the month of March was $51.4 billion, an increase from the $35.9 billion deficit in February.

Monthly Trade Balance

Exports for the month totaled $187.8 billion, up from $186.2 billion. Exports of goods rose to $127.1 billion from $125.6 billion and exports of services increased to $60.8 billion from $60.6 billion.

Exports

Imports for the month totaled $239.2 billion, down from $222.1 billion. Imports of goods increased to $197.6 billion from $181.3 billion and imports of services were $41.6 billion from $40.8 billion.

Imports

The chart below shows the rolling 12-month trade balance as a percentage of exports and GDP to provide better perspective of the relative size of the deficit over time.

Trade Balance

U.S. Q1 2015 Advance GDP Growth Estimate At Only 0.2%

Real gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. BEA published this morning. This was the advance estimate for Q1. The GDP growth rate in Q4 was 2.2% annualized.

Components of GDP by their contributions to GDP growth in Q1:

  • Personal consumption expenditures: +1.31%
  • Private investment: +0.34%
  • Net Exports: -1.25%
  • Government Consumption: -0.15%

GDP Contributions

Nominal GDP was at an annualized $17.7100 trillion in Q1, while real (inflation adjusted, 2009 chained) GDP was $16.3048 trillion.

Nominal GDP

Real GDP was up 3.0% from Q1 2014.

Annual GDP

U.S. Treasury Runs Budget Deficit Of $52.9 Billion In March

The U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $52.9 billion during the month of March. This compares with a $36.9 billion deficit in March 2014. This budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 is so far at $439.5 billion.

Fiscal Year Treasury Budget

Receipts for the month totaled $234.2 billion, up from $215.8 billion a year earlier. Total outlays were $287.1 billion from $252.7 billion a year earlier.

The rolling 12-month U.S. government budget deficit through March was $509.6 billion from $493.5 billion in February. The rolling 12-month budget balance as a percentage of gross domestic product is -2.88%.

Treasury Budget

U.S. Economy Adds 126k New Jobs In March

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 126k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of March. This follows revised payrolls gains of 264k in February and 201k in January.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in March.

Payrolls Change this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

NFP by Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 190k full-time jobs were added in March, while part-time employment decreased by 170k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 0.9 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.5 million.

PTFT Split Since 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.41% of the workforce in March, down from 18.52% in February.

PT Reasons

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 34.0%, up from 33.4%.

Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.5% in March, unchanged from February. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.9% from 11.0%.

Unemployment Rate

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.4% from 5.5%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.6%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.7% from 62.8%, while the employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men decreased to 69.3% from 69.4% and participation among women decreased to 56.6% from 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) fell to 80.9% from 81.0%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

CHange in LFP Since 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees decreased to 33.7 from 33.8, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.86 from $20.82. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.76% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Earnings Growth

Average duration of unemployment in March was 30.7 weeks, down from 31.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 44.3% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment and GDP

U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Decreases To $35.4 Billion In February

The U.S. international trade deficit during the month of February was $35.4 billion, a decrease from the $42.7 billion deficit in January.

Monthly Trade Balance

Exports for the month totaled $186.2 billion, down from $189.2 billion. Exports of goods fell to $125.6 billion from $128.5 billion and exports of services decreased to $60.6 billion from $60.7 billion.

Exports

Imports for the month totaled $221.7 billion, down from $231.9 billion. Imports of goods decreased to $180.8 billion from $191.1 billion and imports of services were $40.9 billion from $40.8 billion.

Imports

The chart below shows the rolling 12-month trade balance as a percentage of exports and GDP to provide better perspective of the relative size of the deficit over time.

Rolling 12-Month Trade