U.S. Treasury Runs Budget Deficit Of $149.2 Billion In July

The U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $149.2 billion during the month of July. This compares with a $94.6 billion deficit in July 2014. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 is so far at $465.5 billion.

Treasury Budget

Receipts for the month totaled $225.5 billion, up from $210.6 billion a year earlier. Total outlays were $374.7 billion from $305.2 billion a year earlier.

The rolling 12-month U.S. government budget deficit through July was $488.4 billion from $433.8 billion in June. The rolling 12-month budget balance as a percentage of gross domestic product is -2.74%.

Rolling Balance

U.S. Economy Adds 215k New Jobs In July

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 215k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of July. This follows revised payrolls gains of 231k in June and 260k in May.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in July.

Industry this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 536k full-time jobs were added in July, while part-time employment decreased by 402k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 286k and part-time jobs have increased by 2,507k.

FTPT Since 2007

Jobs Added Last 12M

Part-time employees made up 18.32% of the workforce in July, down from 18.60% in June.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was unchanged at 31.9%.

PT Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.3% in July, unchanged from June. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.4% from 10.5%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.1%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma was at 8.3%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.3%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men was unchanged at 69.0% and participation among women was unchanged at 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.7% from 80.8%.

LFP Age

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.7, while average hourly earnings increased to $21.01 from $20.98. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.84% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in July was 28.3 weeks, up from 28.1. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 41.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment vs GDP

U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Increases To $43.8 Billion In June

The U.S. international trade deficit during the month of June was $43.8 billion, an increase from the $40.9 billion deficit in May.

Monthly Balance

Exports for the month totaled $188.6 billion, down from $188.7 billion. Exports of goods fell to $127.6 billion from $127.8 billion and exports of services rose to $61.0 billion from $60.9 billion.

Exports

Imports for the month totaled $232.4 billion, up from $229.7 billion. Imports of goods increased to $191.1 billion from $188.4 billion and imports of services were $41.4 billion from $41.2 billion.

Imports

The chart below shows the rolling 12-month trade balance as a percentage of exports and GDP to provide better perspective of the relative size of the deficit over time.

Rolling Balance

U.S. Q2 GDP Growth At 2.3%

Real gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3% in the second quarter of 2015, the U.S. BEA published this morning. This was the preliminary estimate for Q2, and was an improvement from Q1 growth rate of 0.6% annualized.

Components of GDP by their contributions to GDP growth in Q2:

  • Personal consumption expenditures: +1.99%
  • Private investment: +0.06%
  • Net Exports: +0.13%
  • Government Consumption: +0.14%

GDP Contributions

Nominal GDP was at an annualized $17.8405 trillion in Q2, while real (inflation adjusted, 2009 chained) GDP was $16.2704 trillion.

Niminal GDP

Real GDP was up 2.3% from Q2 2014.

Annual GDP

U.S. Treasury Runs Budget Surplus Of $51.8 Billion In June

The U.S. federal government ran a budget surplus of $51.8 billion during the month of June. This compares with a $70.5 billion surplus in June 2014. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 is so far at $313.4 billion.

YTD Balance

Receipts for the month totaled $342.9 billion, up from $323.6 billion a year earlier. Total outlays were $291.2 billion from $253.1 billion a year earlier.

The rolling 12-month U.S. government budget deficit through June was $430.9 billion from $412.1 billion in May. The rolling 12-month budget balance as a percentage of gross domestic product is -2.44%.

Rolling Balance

U.S. Monthly Trade Deficit Increases To $41.9 Billion In May

The U.S. international trade deficit during the month of May was $41.9 billion, an increase from the $40.7 billion deficit in April.

Monthly Trade Balance

Exports for the month totaled $188.6 billion, down from $190.1 billion. Exports of goods fell to $127.7 billion from $129.3 billion and exports of services rose to $60.9 billion from $60.7 billion.

Exports

Imports for the month totaled $230.5 billion, down from $230.8 billion. Imports of goods decreased to $189.2 billion from $189.7 billion and imports of services were $41.2 billion from $41.1 billion.

Imports

The chart below shows the rolling 12-month trade balance as a percentage of exports and GDP to provide better perspective of the relative size of the deficit over time.

Rolling Trade Balance

U.S. Economy Adds 223k New Jobs In June

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 223k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of June. This follows revised payrolls gains of 254k in May and 187k in April.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in June.

Industry this Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. The Construction and Manufacturing sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry since 2007

The household survey shows that 349k full-time jobs were lost in June, while part-time employment increased by 161k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 822k and part-time jobs have increased by 2,909k.

FTPT Since 2007

PTFT Annual

Part-time employees made up 18.60% of the workforce in June, up from 18.47% in May.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was 31.9%, down from 33.4%.

PT Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.3% in June, a decrease from 5.5% in May. The broader unemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 10.5% from 10.8%.

U-3 and U-6

The spread between the U-6 and U-3, or underemployment spread, decreased to 5.2%.

Underemployment Spread

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.2%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 9.5%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.6% from 62.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio fell to 59.3% from 59.4%.

LFP and EP

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.4% and participation among women decreased to 56.7% from 56.8%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.8% from 81.0%.

LFP Age

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.6, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.99 from $20.97. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.94% from a year ago.

Hours

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in June was 28.1 weeks, down from 30.7. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 42.7% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Annual employment growth against real GDP growth:

Employment vs GDP