U.S. House Prices In April 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in April, with the 20-city composite index rising 1.1% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 4.9%.

CS Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in January 2005.

CS Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined.

CS Cities Index

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in Denver, where they rose 10.3%. Washington D.C. has had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.1%.

CS Cities Annual Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

CS Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.3% in April (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.3% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its February 2006 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Pacific region and increased the least in the Middle Atlantic region.

FHFA Regions

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise To Annual Rate Of 5.35 Million In May

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 5.1% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million. This annual rate is 9.2% higher than the 4.90 million-unit level in May 2014.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says May home sales rebounded strongly following April’s decline and are now at their highest pace since November 2009 (5.44 million). “Solid sales gains were seen throughout the country in May as more homeowners listed their home for sale and therefore provided greater choices for buyers,” he said. “However, overall supply still remains tight, homes are selling fast and price growth in many markets continues to teeter at or near double-digit appreciation. Without solid gains in new home construction, prices will likely stay elevated — even with higher mortgage rates above 4 percent.”

“The return of first-time buyers in May is an encouraging sign and is the result of multiple factors, including strong job gains among young adults, less expensive mortgage insurance and lenders offering low downpayment programs,” said Yun. “More first-time buyers are expected to enter the market in coming months, but the overall share climbing higher will depend on how fast rates and prices rise.”

Existing Change

The existing home sales rate increased in all 4 U.S. regions in May:

  • Northeast: 0.69 million from 0.62 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.27 million from 1.22 million month prior.
  • South: 2.18 million from 2.09 million month prior.
  • West: 1.21 million from 1.16 million month prior.

Existing Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of May increased 3.2% to 2.29 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 5.1 month supply at the current sales pace.

Supply

The median time on market for all homes was 40 days in May. That is up from 39 days in April. Short sales were on the market for a median of 131 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 56 days, and non-distressed homes took 38 days. 45% of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $228,700, up 7.9% from a year ago.

Price

CFNAI Ticks Up To -0.17 In May

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.17 in May, up from April’s revised reading of -0.19. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.16.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 50 made negative contributions. 43 indicators improved from April to May, while 41 indicators deteriorated and 1 was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.17 from -0.19 last month. Employment and Hours was unchanged at +0.10, Personal Consumption and Housing was also unchanged at -0.09, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from -0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

U.S. House Prices In March 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in March, with the 20-city composite index rising 0.9% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 5.0%.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in December 2004.

Case-Shiller Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in San Francisco, where they rose 10.3%. Washington D.C. and Cleveland have had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.0%.

Case-Shiller Cities Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.3% in March (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.2% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Prices Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its January 2006 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Mountain region and increased the least in the New England region.

FHFA Regions

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decrease To Annual Rate Of 5.04 Million In April

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. This annual rate is 6.1% higher than the 4.75 million-unit level in April 2014.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales in April failed to keep pace with the robust gain seen in March. “April’s setback is the result of lagging supply relative to demand and the upward pressure it’s putting on prices,” he said. “However, the overall data and feedback we’re hearing from Realtors® continues to point to elevated levels of buying interest compared to a year ago. With low interest rates and job growth, more buyers will be encouraged to enter the market unless prices accelerate even higher in relation to incomes.”

“Housing inventory declined from last year and supply in many markets is very tight, which in turn is leading to bidding wars, faster price growth and properties selling at a quicker pace,” says Yun. “To put it in perspective, roughly 40 percent of properties sold last month went at or above asking price, the highest since NAR began tracking this monthly data in December 2012.”

Existing Home Sales Change

The existing home sales rate decreased in 3 out of 4 U.S. regions in April:

  • Northeast: 0.62 million from 0.64 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.22 million from 1.20 million month prior.
  • South: 2.04 million from 2.19 million month prior.
  • West: 1.16 million from 1.18 million month prior.

Existing Home Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 10.0% to 2.21 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 5.3 month supply at the current sales pace.

Existing Home Sales Supply

The median time on market for all homes was 39 days in April. That is down from 52 days in March. Short sales were on the market for a median of 180 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 50 days, and non-distressed homes took 38 days. 46% of homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $219,400, up 8.9% from a year ago.

Existing Home Sales Price

CFNAI Improves To -0.15 In April

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.15 in April, up from Marchy’s revised reading of -0.36. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.23.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. 46 indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.16 from -0.16 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.08 from -0.08, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.06 from -0.12, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.