U.S. House Prices In November 2014

S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices declined in November, with the 20-city composite index decreasing by 0.2% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 4.3%. This is a slower annual rate of growth than the 4.5% in October and the 13.7% rate in November 2013.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in November 2004.

Case-Shiller Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined over the past 15 years.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in Las Vegas, where they rose 7.7%. Cleveland has had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 0.6%.

Case-Shiller Cities Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S.Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increase 0.8% in November (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.3% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Change

The U.S. index is 4.5% below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as its Octoberr 2005 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Pacific and increased the least in the New England region.

FHFA Divisions

Existing Home Sales Climb To Annual Rate Of 5.04 Million In December

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 2.4% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. This annual rate is 3.5% higher than the 4.87 million-unit level in December 2013.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales picked up in December to close a 2014 that got off to a sluggish start but showed encouraging signs of activity the second half of the year. “Home sales improved over the summer once inventory increased, prices moderated and economic growth accelerated,” he said. “Sales were measurably better in the second half – up 8 percent compared to the first six months of the year.”

“A drop in housing supply in December raises some affordability concerns in the months ahead as minimal selection and the potential for faster price appreciation could offset the demand from buyers encouraged by a stronger economy and sub-4 percent interest rates,” says Yun. “Housing costs – both rents and home prices – continue to outpace wages and are burdensome for potential buyers trying to save for a downpayment while looking for available homes in their price range.”

Existing Home Sales Change

The existing home sales rate in 2 out of 4 U.S. regions in December:

  • Northeast: 0.66 million from 0.68 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.09 million from 1.13 million month prior.
  • South: 2.17 million from 2.09 million month prior.
  • West: 1.12 million from 1.02 million month prior.

Existing Home Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased 11.1% to 1.85 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 4.4 month supply at the current sales pace. Unsold inventory is 0.5% lower than a year ago, when there were 1.86 million existing homes available for sale.

Existing Home Sales Inventory

The median time on market for all homes was 66 days in December. That is up from 65 days in November. Short sales were on the market for a median of 98 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 61 days, and non-distressed homes took 66 days. 31% of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $209,500, up 6.0% from a year ago.

Existing Home Sales Price

CFNAI Drops To -0.05 In December

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.05 in December, down from November’s revised reading of +0.92. The negative figure indicates that the index is below  its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.39.

40 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 45 made negative contributions. 33 indicators improved from November to December, while 52 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.12 from +0.71 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.16 from +0.21, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.12 from -0.03, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.03 from +0.03.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales Orders and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

U.S. House Prices In October

S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices declined in October, with the 10-City composite and 20-city composite indices both decreasing by 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted).

Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 4.5%. This is a slower annual rate of growth than the 4.8% in September and the 13.6% rate in October 2013.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in November 2004.

Case-Shiller Index Levels

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined over the past 15 years.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in Las Vegas, where they rose 8.0%. Cleveland has had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 0.9%.

Case-Shiller Cities Annual

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S.Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increase 0.6% in October (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 4.5% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA House Price Change

The U.S. index is 5.1% below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as its September 2005 index level.

FHFA House Price Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Pacific and increased the least in the Middle Atlantic region.

FHFA House Price Divisions

Existing Home Sales Fall To Annual Rate Of 4.93 Million In November

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.1% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million. This annual rate is 2.1% higher than the 4.83 million-unit level in November 2013.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales activity was choppy throughout the country in November and housing inventory began its seasonal decline. “Fewer people bought homes last month despite interest rates being at their lowest levels of the year,” he said. “The stock market swings in October may have impacted some consumers’ psyches and therefore led to fewer November closings. Furthermore, rising home values are causing more investors to retreat from the market.”

“Lagging homebuilding activity continues to hamstring overall housing supply and is still too low in relation to this year’s promising job growth,” says Yun. “Much faster price and rent appreciation – easily exceeding wage growth – will occur next year unless new construction picks up measurably.”

Change in Existing Home Sales

The existing home sales rate in all 4 U.S. regions in November:

  • Northeast: 0.68 million from 0.71 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.13 million from 1.24 million month prior.
  • South: 2.09 million from 2.16 million month prior.
  • West: 1.03 million from 1.14 million month prior.

Existing Home Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of November decreased 6.7% to 2.09 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 5.1 month supply at the current sales pace. Unsold inventory is 2.0% above a year ago, when there were 2.05 million existing homes available for sale.

Total Inventory

The median time on market for all homes was 65 days in November. That is up from 63 days in October. Short sales were on the market for a median of 116 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 65 days, and non-distressed homes took 63 days. 32% of homes sold in November were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $205,300, up 5.0% from a year ago.

Median Sales Price

CFNAI Rises To +0.73 In November

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of +0.73 in November, up from October’s revised reading of +0.31. The positive figure indicates that the index is above its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at +0.48.

54 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 36 made negative contributions. 36 indicators improved from September to October, while 31 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 6 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered +0.64 from +0.09 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.17 from +0.22, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.10 from -0.11, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.02 from +0.11.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Ordes

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.