U.S. House Prices In March 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in March, with the 20-city composite index rising 0.9% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 5.0%.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in December 2004.

Case-Shiller Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in San Francisco, where they rose 10.3%. Washington D.C. and Cleveland have had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.0%.

Case-Shiller Cities Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.3% in March (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.2% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Prices Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its January 2006 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Mountain region and increased the least in the New England region.

FHFA Regions

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decrease To Annual Rate Of 5.04 Million In April

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. This annual rate is 6.1% higher than the 4.75 million-unit level in April 2014.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales in April failed to keep pace with the robust gain seen in March. “April’s setback is the result of lagging supply relative to demand and the upward pressure it’s putting on prices,” he said. “However, the overall data and feedback we’re hearing from Realtors® continues to point to elevated levels of buying interest compared to a year ago. With low interest rates and job growth, more buyers will be encouraged to enter the market unless prices accelerate even higher in relation to incomes.”

“Housing inventory declined from last year and supply in many markets is very tight, which in turn is leading to bidding wars, faster price growth and properties selling at a quicker pace,” says Yun. “To put it in perspective, roughly 40 percent of properties sold last month went at or above asking price, the highest since NAR began tracking this monthly data in December 2012.”

Existing Home Sales Change

The existing home sales rate decreased in 3 out of 4 U.S. regions in April:

  • Northeast: 0.62 million from 0.64 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.22 million from 1.20 million month prior.
  • South: 2.04 million from 2.19 million month prior.
  • West: 1.16 million from 1.18 million month prior.

Existing Home Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 10.0% to 2.21 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 5.3 month supply at the current sales pace.

Existing Home Sales Supply

The median time on market for all homes was 39 days in April. That is down from 52 days in March. Short sales were on the market for a median of 180 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 50 days, and non-distressed homes took 38 days. 46% of homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $219,400, up 8.9% from a year ago.

Existing Home Sales Price

CFNAI Improves To -0.15 In April

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.15 in April, up from Marchy’s revised reading of -0.36. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.23.

35 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. 46 indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.16 from -0.16 last month. Employment and Hours was +0.08 from -0.08, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.06 from -0.12, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was 0.00 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

Production and Income

Employment and Hours

Consumption and Housing

Sales and Inventories

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

U.S. House Prices In February 2015

U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices increased in February, with the 20-city composite index rising 0.5% (not seasonally adjusted). Year over year, the 20-City Composite is up 5.0%.

Case-Shiller Change

The national house price level is now roughly equal to where it stood in November 2004.

Case-Shiller Index

Of the 20 cities tracked in the index, Los Angeles has had the greatest increase in home prices since 2000, while Detroit has been the only city where prices have declined over the past 15 years.

Case-Shiller Cities

From a year ago, house prices have increased the most in Denver, where they rose 10.0%. Washington D.C. has had the slowest rate of annual increase, rising only 1.4%.

Case-Shiller Cities Change

Dallas and Denver are the only cities whose prices have increased beyond their pre-recession peak. Las Vegas remains the furthest below its peak.

Case-Shiller Table

The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency saw its national house prices increased 0.7% in February (not seasonally adjusted), and increasing 5.4% from a year ago.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

FHFA Change

The U.S. index is roughly the same as its December 2005 index level.

FHFA Index

Of the 9 different geographic census divisions that FHFA tracks, house prices have increased the most year over year in the Pacific and increased the least in the Middle Atlantic region.

FHFA Cities

U.S. Existing Home Sales Increase To Annual Rate Of 5.19 Million In March

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 6.1% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519 million. This annual rate is 10.4% higher than the 4.70 million-unit level in March 2014.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market appears to be off to an encouraging start this spring. “After a quiet start to the year, sales activity picked up greatly throughout the country in March,” he said. “The combination of low interest rates and the ongoing stability in the job market is improving buyer confidence and finally releasing some of the sizable pent-up demand that accumulated in recent years.”

“The modest rise in housing supply at the end of the month despite the strong growth in sales is a welcoming sign,” adds Yun. “For sales to build upon their current pace, homeowners will increasingly need to be confident in their ability to sell their home while having enough time and choices to upgrade or downsize. More listings and new home construction are still needed to tame price growth and provide more opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the market.”

Existing Home Sales Change

The existing home sales rate decreased in all 4 U.S. regions in March:

  • Northeast: 0.62 million from 0.58 million month prior.
  • Midwest: 1.20 million from 1.09 million month prior.
  • South: 2.19 million from 2.11 million month prior.
  • West: 1.18 million from 1.11 million month prior.

Existing Home Sales

Total housing inventory at the end of March increased 5.36% to 2.00 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 4.6 month supply at the current sales pace.

Existing Home Supply

The median time on market for all homes was 52 days in March. That is down from 62 days in February. Short sales were on the market for a median of 165 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 56 days, and non-distressed homes took 51 days. 40% of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month.

The national median existing home price for all housing types was $212,100, up 7.8% from a year ago.

Existing Home Sales Price

CFNAI Contracts To -0.42 In March

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) was a reading of -0.42 in March, down from February’s revised reading of -0.18. The negative figure indicates that the index is below its historical trend. The index’s 3-month moving average is at -0.27.

38 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. 37 indicators improved from February to March, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

The Production and Income index component registered -0.27 from -0.08 last month. Employment and Hours was -0.03 from +0.11, Personal Consumption and Housing was -0.13 from -0.22, and Sales, Orders, and Inventories was +0.01 from +0.01.

CFNAI Components

CFNAI

P&I

E&H

C&H

SO&I

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. Each of these data series measures some aspect of overall macroeconomic activity. 

It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.