U.S. Manufacturing And Trade Sales In December 2014

The combined value of U.S. distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.331 trillion. That is down 0.9% from November, but is up 0.9% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.764 trillion. That is up 0.1% from November and up 3.9% from a year ago.

Trade Monthly Change

Trade Annual Change

Monthly Trade

Trade Sales

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of December was 1.325, up from 1.313 in November. The December 2013 ratio was 1.287.

Trade Ratio

U.S. Economy Adds 257k New Jobs In January

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 257k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of January. This follows revised payrolls gains of 329k in December and 423k in November.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in January.

Industry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in January, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 777k full-time jobs were added in January, while part-time employment increased by 40k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 1.2 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.8 million.

PTFT Change

Part-time employees made up 18.58% of the workforce in January, down from 18.66% in December.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons was unchanged at 34.4%.

Economic Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.7% in January, up from 5.6% in December. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) increased to 11.3% from 11.2%.

U-6

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.5%.

Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.3%.

Race

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.9% from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio increased to 59.3% from 59.2%.

LFP

Participation among men increased to 69.5% from 69.2% and participation among women increased to 56.8% from 56.6%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) rose to 81.8% from 80.8% in December.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

Participation Rate Since 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees decreased to 33.8 from 33.9, while average hourly earnings increased to $20.80 from $20.73. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.96% from a year ago.

Hours

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in January was 32.3 weeks, down from 32.8 in December. This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.0% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Overall, this was a strong and generally positive employment report.

U.S. Manufacturing And Trade Sales In November

The combined value of U.S. distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.346 trillion. That is down 0.2% from October, but is up 2.2% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.764 trillion. That is up 0.2% from October and up 4.4% from a year ago.

Sales and Inventories Monthly Change

Trade Sales Annual

Monthly Sales and Inventories

Trade Sales Montjly

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of November was 1.310, up from 1.306 in October. The November 2013 ratio was 1.282.

Inventory-to-Sales

U.S. Economy Adds 252k Jobs In December

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 252k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of December. This follows revised payrolls gains of 353k in November and 261k in October.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in December.

NFP Industry

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in December, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

NFP Industry Cumulative

The household survey shows that 427k full-time jobs were added in December, while part-time employment decreased by 269k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 1.9 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.7 million.

PTFT Since 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.66% of the workforce in December, down from 18.86% in November.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons increased to 34.4% from 34.3%.

Part-Time Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.6% in December, down from 5.8% in November. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.2% from 11.4%.

Unemployment Rate

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.6%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.4%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.7% from 62.9%, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.2%.

LFP

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.1% from 57.0%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) fell to 80.8% from 81.0% in November.

LFP by Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP CHange Since 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees increased to 33.9 from 33.8, while average hourly earnings dropped to $20.68 from $20.74. Average hourly earnings have increased 1.62% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Earnings

Average duration of unemployment in December was 32.8 weeks, down from 33.0 in November.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Unemployment Duration

Of those unemployed, 46.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duartion Distribution

This was another month of strong growth in payrolls with good industry mix. The household survey showed the full-time/part-time job split was positive, and the share of those working part-time for economic reasons is declining.

However, labor force participation is still falling, and average unemployment duration remains stubbornly high. The share of the unemployed who have been so for more than 15 weeks increased, meaning that the high average unemployment duration number is not entirely driven by those who have been jobless for extreme periods of time.

Finally, the horrendously slow growth in hourly earnings highlights that maybe the labor market is not as tight as other indicators may suggest.

Manufacturing And Trade Sales Dipped In October

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.351 trillion. That is down 0.1% from September, but is up 3.4% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.760 trillion. That is up 0.2% from September and up 4.8% from a year ago.

Trade Sales Monthly Change

Trade Sales Annual Change

Trade Sales Total Monthly

Monthly Trade Sales

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of October was 1.303, up from 1.299 in September. The October 2013 ratio was 1.286.

Inventory-toSales Ratios

U.S. Economy Adds 321k Jobs In November

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 321k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of November. This follows revised payrolls gains of 243k in October and 271k in September.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in November.

Payrolls by INdustry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in November, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 150k full-time jobs were lost in November, while part-time employment increased by 77k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.4 million and part-time jobs have increased by 3.0 million.

FTPT Since November 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.86% of the workforce in November, up from 18.80% in October.

Part-time Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 34.2% from 35.5%.

Part-time Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in November, unchanged from October. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.4% from 11.5%.

U-3 and U-6

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 by Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.5%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 11.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, unchanged from last month, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.2%.

Participation and EP Ratio

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.1% from 57.0%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) was unchanged at 80.8%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Since August 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.74 from $20.70. Average hourly earnings have increased 2.17% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Hourly Earnings Growth

Average duration of unemployment in November was 33.0 weeks, up from 32.7 in October.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 46.3% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duration Distribution

Strong growth in payrolls this month, along with a solid industry mix, make this an unusually positive employment report. The household survey suggests maybe the full-time/part-time job split was weak, but the sheer number of jobs added should compensate for that.

Labor force participation was unchanged, which isn’t great, but is an improvement from the declining trend. Average unemployment duration, I believe still a highly undervalued measure of labor market health, remains stubbornly high and indicates a secular problem, as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.

Manufacturing And Trade Sales Little Changed In September

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.355 trillion. That is basically unchanged from August but is up 4.1% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.756 trillion. That is up 0.3% from August and up 5.3% from a year ago.

Manufacturing and Trade - Monthly Change

Manufacturing and Trade - Annual Change

Manufacturing and Trade - Total Monthly

Manufacturing and Trade Sales

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of September was 1.298, up from 1.295 in August. The September 2013 ratio was 1.284.

Manufacturing and Trade - Ratio