Manufacturing And Trade Sales Dipped In October

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.351 trillion. That is down 0.1% from September, but is up 3.4% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.760 trillion. That is up 0.2% from September and up 4.8% from a year ago.

Trade Sales Monthly Change

Trade Sales Annual Change

Trade Sales Total Monthly

Monthly Trade Sales

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of October was 1.303, up from 1.299 in September. The October 2013 ratio was 1.286.

Inventory-toSales Ratios

U.S. Economy Adds 321k Jobs In November

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 321k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of November. This follows revised payrolls gains of 243k in October and 271k in September.

NFP

The Professional Services industry added the most jobs in November.

Payrolls by INdustry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, the Leisure and Hospitality industry, and the Professional Services industry have contributed the most to job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in November, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 150k full-time jobs were lost in November, while part-time employment increased by 77k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.4 million and part-time jobs have increased by 3.0 million.

FTPT Since November 2007

Part-time employees made up 18.86% of the workforce in November, up from 18.80% in October.

Part-time Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 34.2% from 35.5%.

Part-time Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in November, unchanged from October. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.4% from 11.5%.

U-3 and U-6

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 by Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma increased to 8.5%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 11.1%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, unchanged from last month, while the employment-to-population ratio was also unchanged at 59.2%.

Participation and EP Ratio

Participation among men decreased to 69.0% from 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.1% from 57.0%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) was unchanged at 80.8%.

LFP Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Since August 2008

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees was unchanged at 33.8, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.74 from $20.70. Average hourly earnings have increased 2.17% from a year ago.

Hours Worked

Hourly Earnings Growth

Average duration of unemployment in November was 33.0 weeks, up from 32.7 in October.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Average Duration

Of those unemployed, 46.3% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Unemployment Duration Distribution

Strong growth in payrolls this month, along with a solid industry mix, make this an unusually positive employment report. The household survey suggests maybe the full-time/part-time job split was weak, but the sheer number of jobs added should compensate for that.

Labor force participation was unchanged, which isn’t great, but is an improvement from the declining trend. Average unemployment duration, I believe still a highly undervalued measure of labor market health, remains stubbornly high and indicates a secular problem, as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.

Manufacturing And Trade Sales Little Changed In September

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.355 trillion. That is basically unchanged from August but is up 4.1% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.756 trillion. That is up 0.3% from August and up 5.3% from a year ago.

Manufacturing and Trade - Monthly Change

Manufacturing and Trade - Annual Change

Manufacturing and Trade - Total Monthly

Manufacturing and Trade Sales

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of September was 1.298, up from 1.295 in August. The September 2013 ratio was 1.284.

Manufacturing and Trade - Ratio

U.S. Economy Adds 214k Jobs In October

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 214k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of October. This follows revised payrolls gains of 256k in September and 203k in August.

NFP

The Leisure and Hospitality industry added the most jobs in October.

Industry This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, along with the Leisure and Hospitality and Professional Services industries, have contributed the most to the job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in October, these sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Since 2007

The household survey shows that 345k full-time jobs were added in October, while part-time employment increased by 334k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.2 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.9 million.

FTPT Cumulative

Part-time employees made up 18.80% of the workforce in October, up from 18.66% in September.

PT Share

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 35.5% from 36.3%.

PT Economic

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.8% in October, down from 5.9% in September. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.5% from 11.8%.

U-3

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those with less than a high school diploma decreased to 7.9%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 10.9%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.8%, up from 62.7%, while the employment-to-population ratio increase to 59.2% from 59.0%.

LFP

Participation among men was unchanged at 69.1% and participation among women increased to 57.0% from 56.7%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) increased to 80.8% from 80.7%.

LFP by Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

LFP Age Change

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees increased to 33.8 from 33.7, while average hourly earnings rose to $20.70 from $20.66. This increased average weekly earnings to $699.66, up 2.7% from a year ago.

Earnings

Hours

Average duration of unemployment in October was 32.7 weeks, up from 31.5 in September.  This metric reached a high of 40.7 in 2011, and is still elevated by historical standards.

Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.5% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

DUration Distribution

Increasing labor market participation and a slight tick up in wage growth were about the only positives in this month’s report. Much of the job gains were in low-paying industries, and a disproportionately greater share of jobs added were only part-time.

Worse yet, the already abysmally high average duration of unemployment rose once again, and the share of the unemployed who have been so for more than 15 weeks increased as well. This further suggests that the problem is secular as shifting labor market demand over the past 8 years has created a skills mismatch and left many Americans unemployable.

Manufacturing And Trade Sales Slip In August

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1.353 trillion. That is down 0.4% from July and up 4.4% from a year ago.

Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1.752 trillion. That is up 0.2% from July and up 5.6% from a year ago.

Both Monthly Change

Annual Change

Trade Monthly

Monthly Trade

The total business inventories-to-sales ratio at the end of August was 1.295, up from 1.287 in July. The August 2013 ratio was 1.280.

Ratios

The Emerging Services Economy

China Services

Developing countries need a new growth model. The problem is not just that they need to wean themselves from their reliance on fickle capital inflows and commodity booms, which have often left them vulnerable to shocks and prone to crises. More important, export-oriented industrialization, history’s most certain path to riches, may have run its course.

Manufacturing today is not what it used to be. It has become much more capital- and skill-intensive, with greatly diminished potential to absorb large amounts of labor from the countryside.

While global supply chains have facilitated entry into manufacturing, they have also reduced the gains in terms of value added that accrue at home. Many traditional industries, such as textiles and steel, are likely to face shrinking global markets and over-capacity, driven by demand shifts and environmental concerns. And one downside of China’s success is that many other countries are finding it much harder to establish more than a niche in manufacturing. As a consequence, developing countries are starting to de-industrialize and become more dependent on services at much lower levels of income than has been the pattern for developed countries – a phenomenon that I have called premature de-industrialization.

Are Services the New Manufactures?
Dani Rodrik

U.S. Economy Adds 248k Jobs In September

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that 248k nonfarm payrolls were added during the month of September. This follows revised payrolls gains of 180k in August and 243k in July.

NFP

A bulk of the August job gains came in the Professional Services industry.

Payrolls This Month

The Education and Health Services industry, along with the Leisure and Hospitality and Professional Services industries, have contributed the most to the job gains over the last 8 years. Although Construction and Manufacturing employment both grew in September, theses sectors have had the most difficulty recovering from the economic downturn.

Industry Change

The household survey shows that 671k full-time jobs were added in September, while part-time employment decreased by 384k. Since November 2007, when the household survey showed peak employment, full-time jobs have decreased by 2.6 million and part-time jobs have increased by 2.6 million.

FTPT Change

Part-time employees made up 18.66% of the workforce in September, down from 18.96% in August.

All Employed

Those part-time for economic reasons, workers who would prefer to be full-time but are involuntarily part-time, as a share of those part-time for noneconomic reasons decreased to 36.3% from 37.3%.

Economic Reasons

The unemployment rate (U-3) was 5.9% in September, down from 6.1% in August. The broader underemployment rate (U-6) decreased to 11.8% from 12.0%.

Unemployment Rate

Youth unemployment continues to be volatile.

U-3 Age

Unemployment for those less than a high school diploma decreased to 8.4%.

U-3 Education

Blacks continue to experience the highest unemployment rate at 11.0%.

U-3 Race

The labor force participation rate was 62.7%, down from 62.8%, while the employment-to-population ratio was unchanged at 59.0%.

Participation

Participation among men decreased to 69.1% from 69.2% and participation among women decreased to 56.7% from 56.9%.

LFP Sex

The participation rate for prime age workers (25-54) decreased to 80.7% from 81.1%.

Participation Age

Since the total participation rate peaked in August 2008, participation has only risen in the 55+ age bracket.

Participation Change

Average weekly hours worked by production and supervisory employees were 33.7 from 33.8, while average hourly earnings were unchanged at $20.67. This decreased average weekly earnings to $696.58, up 2.6% from a year ago.

Earnings

Hours

Average duration of unemployment in September was 31.5 weeks, down from 331.7 in August and the historical high of 40.7 in 2011, but still elevated by historical standards.

Duration

Of those unemployed, 47.2% have been so for 15 weeks or longer.

Duration Distribution

Overall, this was a mixed employment report. Payrolls growth was mildly strong but with not great industry mix, the full-time/part-time split was encouragingly positive for a second month in a row, the unemployment rate declined but once again in tandem with a drop in participation, unemployment duration decreased but only marginally, and average earnings show no signs of acceleration.